S. Kopp/A. Weis vs G. Cadenasso/F. Romano

Highlights

• • Estimated away win probability: 58%
• • Required fair decimal odds for away to be +EV: 1.724; current is 1.58

Pros

• + Market clearly identifies a favorite; prices are attractive for a bettor only if true probability is higher than our conservative estimate
• + We apply a conservative model given lack of data to avoid overbetting on uncertain outcomes

Cons

• - Insufficient match-specific information increases the chance our probability estimate is off
• - Doubles and lower-tier events are high-variance; small data errors can flip EV

Details

We lack match-specific data (form, H2H, surface or injuries), so we apply a conservative baseline probability model. The market prices the away pair at 1.58 (book-implied ~63% before vig); after accounting for typical bookmaker margin and uncertainty we estimate the away win probability at 58% (p=0.58). At that probability the fair decimal price is 1.724, which is above the current 1.58 on offer, producing negative expected value. The home price of 2.25 would require a win probability >44.4% to be profitable; our conservative estimate for the home side is ~42% which also yields negative EV. With no sources to justify a higher confidence in either side, there is no positive-value wager at the current market prices.

Key factors

• • No match-specific data available (form, H2H, surface, injuries) — increases uncertainty
• • Book market shows clear favorite (away) at 1.58; our conservative estimate reduces implied edge after accounting for margin
• • Doubles match dynamics and smaller events can be higher variance, so we avoid betting without value