Highlights

• • Implied market chance for away: ~86.96%; our estimate: 88.0%
• • Positive EV is small (≈1.2% ROI) — requires precision and tolerance for variance

Pros

• + Current price (1.15) is slightly superior to our conservative fair price (1.136)
• + Market strongly favors the away pair, aligning with our assessment — reduces informational contradiction risk

Cons

• - Edge is very small and easily lost to line movement, commission, or model error
• - Low-level doubles matches have higher variance and often thin markets; outcomes can be unpredictable

Details

We compare the market-implied probability (1/1.15 ≈ 86.96%) to a conservative assessment of the matchup. With no injury, surface, or head-to-head information available, the market's heavy favoritism toward Kolonus/Vasilyeva appears plausible. After accounting for a modest bookmaker margin (~6.6% across the two prices) and the higher variance typical in lower-level doubles events, we conservatively estimate the away pair's true win probability at 88.0%. At that probability the fair decimal price is 1.136, and the current available price of 1.15 provides a small positive edge. The expected value using the current odds is 0.012 (1.2% ROI), so we recommend taking the away moneyline only because it shows positive EV at the quoted price, while noting the edge is small and market/thin-book volatility could remove it.

Key factors

• • Market implies ~86.96% for the away pair; our conservative estimate is slightly higher at 88.0%
• • Limited public information increases uncertainty; we adjust cautiously but still see a small edge
• • Bookmaker margin and thin-market volatility could erode a small positive edge quickly