S. Lanca/M. Medvedeva vs A. Robbe/K. Sebov

Highlights

• • Implied probability of the favorite is ~94.3%, which is unlikely given unknown information
• • At our 70% win estimate the favorite yields roughly -25.8% ROI, so no value

Pros

• + Market believes strongly in the away pair (if that belief is accurate, the bet would be low-risk)
• + If additional strong data emerges (injury to underdogs, confirmed heavy mismatch), price could be justified

Cons

• - Current odds require extreme certainty to offer positive EV, which we do not have
• - High bookmaker-edge on very short prices; even small estimation errors flip EV negative

Details

We view the market price (away 1.06 -> implied ~94.3%) as extremely short and unlikely to represent true value given the absence of confirming data. With no recent form, surface, injury, or head-to-head information available, we apply conservative assumptions and account for doubles variance and market short-price bias. Under our conservative estimated win probability of 70% for the away pair, the current odds of 1.06 produce a negative expected value (EV = 0.70 * 1.06 - 1 = -0.258), so there is no value to back the favorite. To justify a back of the favorite at 1.06 we would need to believe their win probability exceeds ~94.3%, which is implausible without strong corroborating evidence.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probability (1.06 -> ~94.3%) requires implausibly high certainty to be fair
• • No external data on form, surface, injuries or H2H increases uncertainty; we use conservative estimates
• • Doubles matches have higher upset variance and short-priced favorites often offer negative EV after bookmaker margin