Highlights

• • Normalized home win probability ≈ 57.8%; break-even odds ≈ 1.732
• • Market favorite 1.61 is too short — projected EV ≈ -7.0% on a 1-unit stake

Pros

• + Market reflects a clear favorite which likely prices in some advantage
• + Our approach is conservative and accounts for bookmaker overround

Cons

• - No independent information on players, surface or recent form to identify potential edges
• - Both sides are negative EV at available prices, so no profitable selection

Details

We have no external form, injury, or H2H data, so we apply a conservative market-adjusted approach. Book implied probabilities from the provided decimals are Home 1/1.61 = 62.11% and Away 1/2.20 = 45.45%, which sum to an overround; normalizing gives an estimated fair probability of Home ≈ 57.8% and Away ≈ 42.2%. Using the home probability (our primary estimate) the break-even decimal odds are ~1.732; the market favorite quote of 1.61 is shorter than that, producing negative EV (EV = p*odds - 1 ≈ -0.070). The away side similarly shows no value: required odds ≈ 2.367 while the market is 2.20. Given the lack of informational advantage and both sides showing negative expected value at current prices, we do not recommend a bet.

Key factors

• • No external data on form, surface, injuries or H2H — conservative market-normalization used
• • Book market shows an overround; normalized fair probabilities give Home ≈57.8% / Away ≈42.2%
• • Current market prices (Home 1.61, Away 2.20) are both shorter than our break-even odds