Highlights

• • Market-implied probability 63.77% vs our estimate 64.0%
• • Small positive EV (~0.35% ROI) at current price

Pros

• + Price slightly exceeds our conservative fair odds
• + Low informational risk of large unknown negatives (no reported injuries available)

Cons

• - Edge is extremely small; outcome variance can easily erase the margin
• - No external research or team-specific intel to reinforce the estimate

Details

With no external research available we take a conservative stance. The market currently prices SINNERS at 1.568 (implied probability 63.77%). Given typical small home/organizational advantages in CS2 LAN/online variability and absent evidence of roster problems or injuries, we estimate SINNERS' true win probability at 64.0%. That estimate is only slightly above the market-implied probability, producing a small positive expected value. Because the edge is marginal and information is limited, this is a low-margin value play rather than a strong overlay.

Key factors

• • Current market implies 63.77% for SINNERS; our conservative model gives 64.0%
• • No external injury/lineup or form data available, so estimate is cautious
• • Typical small home/team stability advantage in CS2 contributes to the slight edge