Highlights

• • Market implies away ~82.8% but research does not support that gap
• • Home at 3.90 requires only ~25.6% true probability to be breakeven; we estimate ~50%

Pros

• + Large positive EV at quoted home price (EV ≈ +0.95 per unit)
• + Research supplied shows no clear superiority for the favorite

Cons

• - Provided data is limited and identical for both players — possible omitted info (rankings, recent injuries) could justify market pricing
• - High variance single-match bet; outcome still uncertain despite value

Details

We find clear value on the home moneyline. The market prices Lucie Nguyen Tan at 1.208 (≈82.8% implied) and Sabastiani Leon at 3.90 (≈25.6% implied). The available research shows both players with essentially identical career spans, identical overall records (10-21) and similar recent results and surface history — there is no substantive evidence in the provided sources that one player is materially superior. Given that parity in the provided data, the market's heavy lean to the away side appears overstated. Conservatively treating the matchup as approximately even (true win probability for Sabastiani ≈50%), the home decimal odds of 3.90 produce a large positive expected value (EV = 0.5*3.90 - 1 = 0.95). To be profitable the market would need Sabastiani's true win chance to be below ~25.6%, which is inconsistent with the identical profiles and results we have. We therefore recommend backing the home under these quoted odds.

Key factors

• • Provided profiles show both players with identical records (10-21) and recent results — no clear advantage
• • Market implies a very high chance for the away player (≈82.8%), which is not supported by the supplied data
• • No injury, surface or H2H information in the research that justifies the heavy market skew