Highlights

• • Market-implied probability for Yoshka is ~82%; our model estimates much lower effective chance for Yoshka based on provided form.
• • Home at 4.00 passes our minimum fair-price threshold (3.333) and shows positive EV.

Pros

• + Clear numerical edge versus market price when using documented form for Yoshka
• + High upside if Yoshka's recent losses reflect real decline

Cons

• - Extremely limited data set (5 matches) and no direct information on Sacha Grandvincent increases model risk
• - Market may reflect unseen factors (injury status, ranking, matchup specifics) not present in the provided research

Details

We compare market pricing to the limited available form data. The market makes Yoshka Sborowsky a heavy favorite at 1.22 (implied win probability ~82%), leaving Sacha Grandvincent a 25% market chance at 4.00. The only research available shows Yoshka with a 1-4 record (20% win rate over 5 matches) and recent losses, which suggests the market probability is substantially overstating Yoshka's likelihood if that form is meaningful. Given the small sample size and absence of any data on Sacha, we conservatively estimate Sacha's true win probability at 30%. At decimal odds 4.00 EV = 0.30 * 4.00 - 1 = 0.20 (20% ROI on a 1-unit stake), which is positive value. Therefore we recommend a bet on the home under a value-driven view because the current price exceeds our minimum fair odds (3.333).

Key factors

• • Yoshka Sborowsky documented record 1-4 in provided data (poor recent form)
• • Market is pricing Yoshka at ~82% (1.22), creating potential mispricing relative to documented form
• • Very small sample size and no independent data on Sacha Grandvincent increases uncertainty but allows for conservative upside for the home