Highlights

• • Implied market probability for home: ~64.3%
• • Our estimated true probability for home: 55% -> fair odds ~1.818

Pros

• + Market gives a clear favorite which simplifies the value check
• + Available data shows no decisive reason to prefer the market edge

Cons

• - Research is limited and contains near-identical profiles, increasing uncertainty
• - No strong recent form, surface or injury indicators to confidently exceed the market-implied probability

Details

We compared the market price (Sahaja Yamalapalli 1.556, implied win probability ~64.3%) to our assessment of the true probability. The available profiles show virtually identical career records and limited recent positive signal, with no clear surface or matchup edge in the research provided. Given that parity and some recent losses are evident, we estimate Sahaja's true win probability near 55%. At that truth probability the fair decimal price is ~1.818, meaning the current favorite price 1.556 is significantly below fair value and offers negative expected value. Therefore we do not recommend backing the favorite at current prices; no value exists on the underdog either (market price 2.31 implies ~43.3% which exceeds our estimate for Kylie).

Key factors

• • Market strongly favors the home player (implied ~64%) but available form/profile does not justify such a large edge
• • Both player profiles in the research show similar career results and recent losses — no clear superiority
• • No explicit surface, injury, or head-to-head advantage in the provided data to justify taking the favorite at current price