Highlights

• • Market-implied probability for the favorite is ~71%
• • Our conservative estimate for the favorite is 62%, producing EV ≈ -0.13 at 1.41

Pros

• + Current favorite price (1.41) reflects visible market confidence — low variance if true
• + Clear decision: market and conservative model disagree, avoiding a negative-EV bet

Cons

• - Very limited match-specific information increases uncertainty
• - If inside information (injury, surface advantage, recent form) existed, our conservative estimate could be wrong

Details

With no external data available we apply conservative assumptions. The market prices Mahmoud Chetouane as a strong favorite at 1.41 (implied 70.9%). Given the match is an ITF R1 event where form, surface and small sample variance matter, we estimate Mahmoud's true win probability at 62%. That implies the current price (1.41) offers negative expected value: EV = 0.62 * 1.41 - 1 = -0.126. The gap between our conservative probability and the market-implied probability is too large to justify a bet on the favorite; likewise the underdog's price (2.68) would require a much higher true probability than we assign. Therefore we recommend no bet at current prices.

Key factors

• • No external form, injury, or H2H data available — conservative default assumptions applied
• • Market implies heavy favorite (1.41 = 70.9%); we judge this overstated in absence of corroborating info
• • ITF R1 matches can be high-variance; bookmaker margins and small-sample noise reduce exploitable edges