Sam Young-Mathers vs Jake Delaney
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find clear value on the home underdog at 8.0 — a conservative 18% win estimate yields +0.44 EV (44% ROI) against the market-implied 12.5% break-even.
Highlights
- • Bookmakers imply an implausible ~94% for Delaney at 1.06
- • A modest 18% true chance for Sam converts into substantial value at 8.0
Pros
- + Large discrepancy between market-implied probability and realistic win-rate estimates
- + High upside: current odds well above the minimum required (5.556) for positive EV
Cons
- - Very limited information on the home player and match context in provided research
- - Market could be accurate if there are unreported factors (injury, withdrawal risk, scratch lines), making this a higher-risk value play
Details
The market price (Sam Young-Mathers at 8.0, implied 12.5%) appears to overstate Jake Delaney's probability of winning (1.06, implied ~94%). Delaney's career record (44-29, ~60% win rate) and recent losses in the research suggest he is a capable player but not near a 94% win probability. With no H2H or injury information for either player provided, we take a conservative floor for the underdog's chance. Even a modest true probability for Sam (≈18%) produces strong value against the current 8.0 price. Therefore we recommend backing the home underdog because the bookmakers' price implies an implausibly low chance and the fair probability implied by available performance data supports a materially higher chance than 12.5%.
Key factors
- • Market-implied probability for the favorite (1.06) is unrealistically high given Delaney's ~60% career win-rate
- • Delaney's recent form includes several recent losses, reducing confidence in a near-certain outcome
- • Underdog price (8.0) requires only a ~12.5% win chance to break even; a conservative 18% estimate yields strong positive EV