Highlights

• • De-vigged probabilities: Away ~56.5%, Home ~43.5%
• • Best available EV (Home 2.14) is about -6.8% — negative expectation

Pros

• + Conservative, model-driven approach avoids overbetting without data
• + Clear numeric rationale showing why neither side is +EV

Cons

• - No live intel on surface, recent form, or injuries — increases uncertainty
• - Small edges could exist outside widely-available prices not considered here

Details

We deconstructed the market prices and applied a conservative de-vigging approach because no external data was available. Market decimals imply: Away 1.65 -> 60.61% and Home 2.14 -> 46.73% (sum = 107.34% indicating ~7.3% vig). De-vigging yields estimated true probabilities of ~56.46% for Away and ~43.54% for Home. Using the de-vigged probabilities, the expected ROI for Home at 2.14 is 0.4354 * 2.14 - 1 = -0.068 (about -6.8%) and for Away at 1.65 is 0.5646 * 1.65 - 1 = -0.069 (about -6.9%). Neither side offers positive expected value at the current widely available prices; the best (least negative) candidate would be Home at 2.14 but it still shows negative EV. Given the lack of form, surface, injury or H2H data, we remain conservative and recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • No external form/injury/H2H data available — conservative baseline assumptions
• • Market implies Away favorite; total book shows ~7.3% vig
• • De-vigged probabilities: Away ~56.46%, Home ~43.54%
• • Neither side clears the break-even threshold at current prices