Highlights

• • Market implies only ~40% for the home player; we estimate ~47%
• • Positive EV ≈ +0.17 at the current 2.49 price

Pros

• + Home has venue/hard-court familiarity in Monastir
• + Bookmaker heavily favors the away player despite limited sample size

Cons

• - Recent-form snippets are incomplete and small-sample noise is possible
• - No head-to-head data provided and both players have mixed recent results

Details

We find value on the home player (Samir Hamza Reguig). The market prices Samir at 2.49 (implied ~40.2%) while Anton Shepp is heavily favored at 1.495 (implied ~66.9%). Using the provided career records and recent match context, Samir has a larger sample size (161 matches, 65-96 career) and recent activity in Monastir on hard courts, whereas Anton has a very small sample (19 matches, 7-12) and recent results shown on clay. Anton's market price appears inflated relative to his career win rate (≈36.8%), and Samir's career win rate (≈40.4%) plus apparent venue familiarity suggest Samir's true match win probability is materially higher than the market-implied 40.2%. We estimate Samir's true win probability at 47.0%, which yields positive expected value at the quoted 2.49 price (EV = 0.47*2.49 - 1 ≈ +0.17). We therefore recommend backing the home player only because the calculated EV at current widely-available decimal odds is positive. Key uncertainties: small, incomplete recent-form samples and lack of direct head-to-head data, so we conservatively set the probability at 47% rather than a higher figure.

Key factors

• • Samir has a much larger career sample and modestly better career win rate than Anton
• • Samir has recent matches in Monastir on hard courts (venue familiarity advantage)
• • Anton’s small sample size (19 matches) and recent clay activity make the heavy market favoritism appear overstated