Highlights

• • Samir's documented career win rate is ~31.6%.
• • Current home odds (1.82) imply ~54.9%, which we view as overstated.

Pros

• + We base our estimate on an objective career sample rather than bettors' sentiment.
• + Surface experience includes hard courts, so the player isn't clearly disadvantaged by surface.

Cons

• - Limited dataset and missing information on the opponent and recent matches increases uncertainty.
• - Market may contain information not present in the supplied research (form, fitness, local conditions).

Details

We estimate Samir Hamza Reguig's true win probability based on his documented career record (12-26 across 38 matches) and limited recent form data; that yields an estimated true probability around 31.6%. The market is pricing the home side at 1.82 (implied ~54.9%), which substantially overstates his likelihood to win versus our estimate. There is no information provided about Remy Dugardin or head-to-head, and no injury or strong positive form evidence to move our estimate closer to the market. Given our probability (31.6%) the current home price (1.82) produces a negative expected value, so we do not recommend betting either side at the listed prices.

Key factors

• • Career win rate low: 12-26 (approx 31.6% win rate) across 38 recorded matches
• • Market implies a 54.9% chance at 1.82 for the home player, which significantly exceeds our estimate
• • No information provided on the opponent (Remy Dugardin), H2H, or injury status to justify market pricing