Samir Banerjee vs Elmar Ejupovic
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: The favorite (Samir) is priced too short relative to our conservative 70% estimate given surface uncertainty and sample sizes, so we do not find value at current odds.
Highlights
- • Implied favorite probability: ~75.6% (odds 1.323).
- • Our assessed probability: 70% → required fair odds ~1.429.
Pros
- + Samir shows a stronger win-loss profile in the supplied data.
- + Market strongly favors the favorite, reflecting perceived quality gap.
Cons
- - No clear grass-court form for either player in the provided research.
- - Current odds are too short to offer positive EV against our conservative estimate.
Details
We compare the market-implied probability for Samir Banerjee (1/1.323 = 75.6%) to our assessed true chance. Samir's recorded win rate in the provided profile is materially better than Elmar's, but both players have limited or unclear grass experience in the supplied data and the match is a qualifier on grass — a surface neither profile clearly demonstrates strength on. Given the surface uncertainty, smaller sample sizes, and Elmar's greater match volume (more experience in lower-level events), we conservatively estimate Samir's true win probability at 70%. At that probability the market price of 1.323 is too short (min fair decimal ~1.429), so there is no positive expected value at current odds.
Key factors
- • Market-implied probability for Samir (≈75.6%) is higher than our conservative true estimate (70%).
- • Both players lack clear grass-form data in the provided profiles, increasing outcome uncertainty.
- • Elmar has more match experience overall; qualifiers and grass can produce volatility and upsets.