Highlights

• • Home implied probability 41.2% vs our 45% estimate
• • Break-even odds 2.222; market offers 2.43

Pros

• + Better hard-court/Monastir familiarity for Samir
• + Market appears to overprice Cesar based on thin sample and recent clay results

Cons

• - Samir's overall career win rate is lower and sample of wins is inconsistent
• - Small sample sizes and limited up-to-date injury/form info increase variance

Details

We compared the market prices (Home 2.43 -> implied 41.2%; Away 1.529 -> implied 65.4%) to our assessment of true chances. Samir Hamza Reguig has more match exposure at this venue/tournament and recent activity on Monastir hard courts, while Cesar Bouchelaghem's limited sample (12 matches) and recent results include clay losses. We estimate Samir's true win probability at 45.0%, which is materially higher than the market-implied 41.2% for the home side; that gap produces positive expected value. At our estimate the break-even decimal odds are ~2.222, so the available 2.43 represents value. We note higher variance due to small-sample records and some uncertainty about current form/injuries.

Key factors

• • Samir has more match exposure at Monastir/hard surface versus opponent
• • Cesar's career sample is small (12 matches) and recent results show losses on clay
• • Market implies a 65% chance for Cesar which we view as overstated given form/sample; home price (2.43) offers a value margin