Highlights

• • Market implies ~60.5% for home but our estimate is ~51%
• • Fair odds for the home player would be ~1.961 — well above current 1.654

Pros

• + We used only the supplied match and player data to avoid unsupported assumptions
• + Conservative probability estimate reflects near-identical records and unclear edge

Cons

• - Research lacks detailed surface, H2H, and injury/context data that could change the estimate
• - If any unreported local/fitness advantage exists, our neutral read could miss value

Details

Market favors the home player at decimal 1.654 (implied win probability ~60.5%). The available player data for both Sandra Samir and Daria Khomutsianskaya shows almost identical career records (10-21) and similar recent form with losses; there is no clear performance edge in the provided research. Given near-identical profiles and no H2H, surface, or injury advantage in the supplied sources, we estimate the home player's true win probability at 51%. At that probability the fair decimal price would be ~1.961, substantially higher than the current 1.654, producing a negative ROI. Therefore no value exists on the market favorite at current prices and we do not recommend backing either side based on the supplied information.

Key factors

• • Both players show nearly identical career records (10-21) in the provided data
• • Recent match results in the research show losses and no clear momentum advantage
• • Market-implied probability for home (≈60.5%) materially exceeds our estimated true probability (51%)