Highlights

• • Home implied chance 55.97% vs our 60% estimate
• • Min fair odds to justify bet: 1.667; current price 1.787 exceeds that

Pros

• + Surface familiarity advantage for the home player
• + Larger sample size and better career win rate for Santiago

Cons

• - Recent form data is noisy and incomplete, increasing uncertainty
• - No clear head-to-head data and challenger events can be volatile

Details

We compare the market-implied probability (1/1.787 = 55.97%) to our estimated true probability for Santiago Fa Rodriguez Taverna. We rate Santiago higher due to substantially more match experience, a better overall win record across surfaces, and documented play on grass — whereas Andrew Paulson's recorded matches are concentrated on clay with a much smaller sample size and inferior win-loss record. Given those surface and experience edges, we estimate Santiago's win probability at 60%, which is above the market-implied 55.97%, producing positive value after accounting for the bookmaker vig. The current home price (1.787) therefore presents a modest positive expected value (EV = 0.072). We acknowledge uncertainty from limited head-to-head information and noisy recent form data, so the edge is conservative but actionable at the quoted odds.

Key factors

• • Santiago has significantly more pro match experience and a stronger overall record
• • Match surface is grass — Santiago has documented grass experience while Paulson's matches are concentrated on clay
• • Market-implied probability (55.97%) is below our estimated true probability (60%), giving positive EV after vig