Highlights

• • Estimated true win probability for home: 52%
• • Required odds to break even: 1.923; market offers 1.971

Pros

• + Surface history favors the home player (grass experience)
• + Bookmaker pricing slightly discounts home despite the surface edge, producing positive EV

Cons

• - Both players recently played on clay in the same event, reducing form clarity for grass
• - Limited grass-surface sample and no H2H or injury data increases outcome variance

Details

We compare the market-implied probabilities (Away implied ~53.5%, Home ~50.7%) to our surface-adjusted assessment. Santiago Fa Rodriguez Taverna has recorded matches on grass in his profile while Oleg Prihodko’s profile lists no grass matches, suggesting a surface edge to the home player. Overall win-loss records are very similar, but the market slightly favors Prihodko despite the grass disadvantage. We estimate Taverna's true win probability at 52.0%; at the current home moneyline of 1.971 this produces a positive expected value (EV = 0.52 * 1.971 - 1 = 0.024). Key uncertainties that temper conviction are the small number of grass matches overall, recent form shown at the same challenger on clay, and lack of H2H/injury detail, so we keep a conservative probability.

Key factors

• • Home player has recorded grass matches; away player has no grass listed — surface edge for home
• • Market lightly favors away despite surface note, creating a potential value gap
• • Overall career records are similar; recent tournament matches were on clay for both, increasing uncertainty