Highlights

• • Taverna has documented grass experience; Molleker does not in the provided profiles
• • Current odds of 1.746 imply ~57.3% — we estimate ~62%, producing ~8.25% ROI on a 1-unit stake

Pros

• + Surface edge for Taverna (grass experience)
• + No reported fitness issues for either player, reducing variance from late scratches

Cons

• - Both players have similar overall records and limited direct-comparison data in the research
• - Small-sample uncertainty and lack of head-to-head data increase variance around the probability estimate

Details

We estimate Santiago Fa Rodriguez Taverna is undervalued at the current moneyline. The market implies ~57.3% for Taverna (1/1.746) but, based on the provided research, we assign a higher true win probability because Taverna has recorded matches on grass while Rudolf Molleker's profile lists clay and hard only (no grass experience reported). Both players have similar overall records and recent Challenger-level results, but surface familiarity on grass should favor Taverna, and there are no reported injuries or disqualifying conditions in the research. Given those factors and the limited but relevant surface edge, our model estimates Taverna's true win probability at 62%, producing positive expected value at the current decimal odds.

Key factors

• • Surface: Taverna has recorded grass matches; Molleker's profile shows no grass matches
• • Comparable overall records but Taverna has greater exposure in the relevant surface
• • No injuries or disqualifying conditions reported in the provided research