Highlights

• • Research shows essentially identical career records and recent form
• • Current home price (2.25) demands only a 44.4% probability to be profitable versus our 50% estimate

Pros

• + Clear mathematical edge at current odds if true win probability is ~50%
• + No research-based factor strongly favoring the away player

Cons

• - Limited data and no head-to-head/surface specifics in the research increase uncertainty
• - Small-sample records and tournament context could contain unobserved edges the market prices

Details

We view this as a near coin-flip based on the research: both players show identical overall records (10-22) and similar recent form with no clear edge in form, surface preference, injuries, or head-to-head information. The market prices Jenny Duerst as a clear favorite (1.568, implied ~63.8%), which is not supported by the available data. Treating the match as 50/50 gives Sapfo Sakellaridi fair win probability of 0.50 versus the market-implied 0.444 for the 2.25 price, producing positive value. We therefore recommend the home underdog at current decimal odds because the market appears to overstate the away player’s advantage relative to the identical profiles.

Key factors

• • Both players have identical season records (10-22) and similar recent results
• • No clear surface, injury, or head-to-head advantage apparent in the provided research
• • Market implies a large edge to the away player that is not supported by the available data