Sara Dols vs Dasha Ivanova
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We estimate the match as roughly 50/50 and find a small positive edge on the away moneyline at 2.04 (EV ≈ +2%), since fair odds would be ~2.00.
Highlights
- • Both players show nearly identical records and surfaces in the research
- • Away price 2.04 > required 2.00, yielding ~+2% EV on our 50% estimate
Pros
- + Current away odds exceed our fair-price threshold
- + No evident informational advantage for the market to justify the home favorite
Cons
- - Edge is small (≈2%) and sensitive to small errors in probability estimate
- - Limited data and symmetric profiles increase uncertainty — outcome volatility is high
Details
We find value on Dasha Ivanova (away) because the market-implied probabilities (home 1.685 => 59.3%, away 2.04 => 49.0%, combined overround ~8.3%) overstate a clear edge for Sara Dols despite both players showing nearly identical profiles in the research: same career span, identical overall records (10-21), and similar surfaces played and recent form. With no H2H advantage, no injury flags, and no meaningful surface edge in the provided data, we assess the true win probability as roughly 50% for each player. At an estimated true probability of 0.50, the required fair decimal price is 2.00; the available away price of 2.04 therefore offers positive expected value. Using the quoted away odds (2.04) gives EV = 0.50 * 2.04 - 1 = +0.02 (2% ROI). We recognize high uncertainty from limited and symmetric data, so the edge is small but present at current prices.
Key factors
- • Profiles and recent records nearly identical (10-21) — no clear skill gap
- • No injury or surface advantage evident in the provided data
- • Market overround (~8.3%) inflates favorite price; away price exceeds fair threshold (2.00)