Highlights

• • Both players have identical available records and surface experience
• • Home at 18.0 vs our conservative true probability (45%) implies very large expected upside

Pros

• + Huge positive EV at the quoted price (ev ≈ 7.10 per 1 unit stake)
• + Profiles indicate parity, supporting a much higher true probability than market implies

Cons

• - Market extreme skew suggests possible undisclosed late information (withdrawal/injury) or bookmaker error
• - Small sample sizes and limited public data increase uncertainty in our probability estimate

Details

We find a major discrepancy between the market moneyline (Sara Lanca at 18.0, Elza Tomase at 1.01) and the available player profiles, which show near-identical career spans, records (both 10-22) and surface experience. There is no injury or withdrawal information in the research that would justify a 99% market-implied probability for the away player. Given the parity in records and surfaces, we estimate Sara Lanca's true win probability materially higher than the market-implied 5.56% (1/18). Using a conservative estimated_true_probability of 45%, the min fair odds needed are ~2.222; the current 18.0 decimal price therefore represents very large theoretical value. We note the unusual market price could be due to unreported late information or a bookmaker error, which raises execution risk, but strictly on value math the home side is strongly positive at the quoted price.

Key factors

• • Player records and profiles show near-identical form and surface history (both 10-22)
• • Market odds extremely skewed toward away (1.01), creating a large value opportunity on the home side
• • No injury/withdrawal information present in research to justify the heavy market favoritism