Highlights

• • Sara Lanca has a weak overall record and recent hard-court losses
• • Current away price (1.66) appears to understate Isakova's true chance

Pros

• + Positive expected value at current widely-available price (EV ≈ +0.112)
• + Simple, data-driven edge based on opponent's poor form and market pricing

Cons

• - Limited research data on Polina Isakova in the provided sources adds model uncertainty
• - Small-sample nature of Sara's career and recent matches increases variance

Details

We see value on Polina Isakova at the current moneyline (1.66). Sara Lanca's limited data shows a poor career record (10-22) and recent losses on hard courts, indicating a low baseline win probability (we estimate Sara ~33%). The market-implied probability for Isakova at 1.66 is ~60.2%, while our estimated win probability for Isakova is ~67% (complement of Sara's estimated 33%), producing positive edge. Using only the provided information (Sara's career and recent form plus the quoted odds), the away price offers a positive expected value: EV = 0.67 * 1.66 - 1 = +0.112 (≈11.2% ROI). We do note limited data on Isakova in the research, so our estimate relies heavily on Sara's poor form and the market differential.

Key factors

• • Sara Lanca career record 10-22 (low historical win rate)
• • Recent losses on hard courts in early September indicate poor current form
• • Market-implied probability for Isakova (1.66) is ~60%, below our estimated ~67%