Sara Lanca vs Urszula Radwanska

Highlights

• • Market implies an unrealistic near-certain favorite (away 1.01) with no research support.
• • At our conservative 47% win estimate for the home player, the current price 16.0 produces +652% ROI.

Pros

• + Huge mathematical edge if our probability estimate is reasonable versus the listed price.
• + Both players' records and surfaces are comparable, supporting a near-50/50 baseline rather than the market split.

Cons

• - Price pattern strongly suggests unreported withdrawal/late information or data error — elevated chance of void/walkover.
• - Small-data sample in the provided research (limited matches and no H2H), so our probability estimate has uncertainty.

Details

We observe a clear market anomaly: the listed away price of 1.01 implies ~99.0% probability while the home price of 16.0 implies ~6.25% — an implausible split given the research. Both players have nearly identical career spans, match counts and win-loss records and have played the same surfaces (clay, hard); there are no injury notes or other factors in the provided research to justify a near-certain away win. Conservatively, we estimate Sara Lanca's true chance to win at 47% (Urszula Radwańska ~53%) based on comparable form and no disqualifying information. At that estimate the home price of 16.0 offers substantial value (EV = 0.47 * 16 - 1 = +6.52 units ROI). We caution this is likely a market or data error risk (possible withdrawal/late info), so while mathematically attractive the bet carries elevated operational risk.

Key factors

• • Extreme market pricing anomaly: away 1.01 (implied ~99%) vs home 16.0 (implied ~6%)
• • Players' profiles and recent results are effectively comparable (no evidence one is a near-certain winner)
• • No injury/withdrawal information provided in the research — increases uncertainty that market price reflects non-public info