Highlights

• • Current market implies home win ~34.5% at 2.90; we estimate ~48%
• • EV at current price is +0.392 (39.2% ROI) based on our probability

Pros

• + Large gap between implied and estimated probabilities indicates strong value
• + Research does not present a clear advantage for the favorite (Chloe Paquet), supporting a contrarian home selection

Cons

• - Available research is limited and shows near-identical records, increasing uncertainty
• - Small-sample variance in tennis means outcomes remain volatile despite positive EV

Details

Market prices strongly favor the away player at 1.40 (implied win ~71.4%) despite the research showing both players have almost identical profiles and records (each 10-21 across similar surfaces). Given the lack of differentiating evidence (no injury flags, identical recent records, no H2H or clear surface advantage), we estimate the true win probability for the home player, Sara Saito, to be materially higher than the market-implied 34.48% for the 2.90 price. Our conservative estimated true probability is 48.0%, which implies the 2.90 quote is mispriced and offers value: EV = 0.48 * 2.90 - 1 = +0.392 (39.2% ROI). The margin between our estimate and the market-implied probability (48.0% vs 34.48%) is ~13.5 percentage points, representing a clear value edge given the available research.

Key factors

• • Both players show nearly identical career records and surfaces played in the provided research
• • No injuries, withdrawals, or form differentiation noted in the available sources
• • Market-implied probability for the home player (34.48%) is substantially below our conservative true estimate (48%), creating value