Highlights

• • Market price: Paquet 1.465 (implied ≈68.2%), Saito 2.63 (implied ≈38.0%).
• • Our conservative estimate for Paquet (60%) produces EV = -0.121 at 1.465 — no value.

Pros

• + Market clearly identifies a favorite (Paquet) with substantial probability in the decimal price.
• + If additional information (injury to Paquet, surface advantage for Saito) emerges, the value picture could change quickly.

Cons

• - Available research is limited and truncated; no decisive data supports the market's heavy lean toward Paquet.
• - Negative expected value on the favorite at current odds and no credible upside on the underdog based on supplied records.

Details

We compared the market pricing (Paquet 1.465 implied ~68.2%, Saito 2.63 implied ~38.0%) to what the available research supports. The provided profiles show near-identical records (both 10-21 over 31 matches) and recent form data is truncated with no clear surface or injury edge; there is no evidence in the research to justify the market assigning Paquet a ~30-point edge. Conservatively, we estimate Chloe Paquet's true win probability at 60% (0.60). Using the EV formula (EV = p * decimal_odds - 1) at the quoted favorite price of 1.465 gives EV = 0.60 * 1.465 - 1 = -0.121 (negative). The underdog (Sara Saito) at 2.63 would require a true probability >= 1/2.63 = 0.380 to break even; given the symmetric, limited data we do not have confidence Saito's true win probability exceeds that threshold. Because both sides fail to show positive expected value under our conservative probability estimates, we do not recommend a bet.

Key factors

• • Both players show effectively identical recorded form in the provided research (both 10-21 across 31 matches).
• • Research provides no clear surface, injury, or head-to-head edge to justify the market gap favoring Paquet heavily.
• • Market-implied probability for Paquet (≈68%) is materially higher than our conservative estimate (60%), producing negative EV on the favorite.