Sara Kastakova vs Gina Feistel
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: The favourite (Gina Feistel) is priced at an implied ~94% but supplied performance data points to a much lower win chance (~40% in our estimate), so there is no value on either side at current prices; recommend no bet.
Highlights
- • Market price (1.06) implies a probability far above what the supplied data supports
- • Feistel's documented career and recent form do not justify heavy favoritism
Pros
- + We rely only on the provided match data and player performance metrics
- + Clear quantitative mismatch between market odds and documented performance
Cons
- - Limited information on the home player (Sara Kastakova) in the supplied research increases uncertainty
- - Our probability estimate is conservative due to scarce matchup-specific details; outcomes could differ if unprovided factors (injury, ranking gaps) exist
Details
We compare the market price (Gina Feistel away 1.06, implied win probability 94.34%) to what can be supported by the available performance data. Feistel's documented career record in the provided research is 10-21 (31 matches, ~32% raw win rate) with recent losses on hard courts. There is no supporting evidence in the provided research that she is a 94% likelihood to win this match; on the contrary her form and career win rate suggest a far lower true probability. Using a conservative, research-grounded estimated_true_probability of 40% for Feistel, the expected value at the quoted 1.06 price is negative (EV = 0.40 * 1.06 - 1 = -0.576), so there is no value in backing the favorite. The long home price (8.5) implies ~11.76% chance and could be attractive only if we believed Sara Kastakova had much better than ~12% chance; however, we have no research data supporting such an elevated estimate for the home player. Therefore we recommend taking no bet because neither side offers positive EV based on the supplied data and current quoted prices.
Key factors
- • Market-implied probability for Feistel (1/1.06 = 94.34%) is extremely high and unsupported by supplied performance data
- • Feistel career record in the research is 10-21 (~32% win rate) with recent losses, indicating poor form
- • No data provided on Sara Kastakova to justify the heavy market skew; long-home odds (8.5) could only be backed with substantial contrary evidence