Highlights

• • Market-implied probability for Mikaca: ~81.5%
• • Our estimated true probability: ~32.3% → required odds ≥ 3.100 for +EV

Pros

• + Market clearly considers Mikaca the strong favorite (short price)
• + Mikaca has experience on clay and hard, so surface mismatch is not apparent from available data

Cons

• - Current price (1.226) produces a ~-60.5% ROI vs our win-prob estimate
• - Opponent data missing — can't justify market's heavy favoritism; high uncertainty

Details

We estimate Sara Mikaca's true win probability from her season record (10 wins in 31 matches = 0.323). The market price of 1.226 implies a win probability of ~0.815 (1/1.226). Comparing those, the market is pricing Mikaca far above what her recent results justify. Using our estimated probability (0.323) the expected value at the current decimal price is EV = 0.323 * 1.226 - 1 = -0.605 (roughly -60.5% ROI). To have positive value on Mikaca we would need decimal odds of at least 3.100, which is materially higher than the offered 1.226. We also lack any opponent-specific data (Iva Ivanovic form, injuries, H2H), which increases uncertainty and prevents us from adjusting our base estimate upward. Given the large negative EV and the information available, we do not recommend backing the market favorite.

Key factors

• • Season record 10-21 (10 wins in 31 matches) → baseline win rate ~32.3%
• • Book price 1.226 implies ~81.5% — large discrepancy versus our estimate
• • No available data on the opponent (Iva Ivanovic) or injuries/H2H, increasing uncertainty