Highlights

• • Yesypchuk's career win-rate (~32%) is far below the market-implied probability for 1.14
• • Required fair odds for Yesypchuk based on supplied data is ~3.096 — well above current quotes

Pros

• + We rely on concrete match-history numbers from the provided profile rather than market noise
• + Conservative approach avoids betting into clearly negative expected-value situations

Cons

• - No information provided about the opponent or other contextual factors that could materially change win likelihood
• - If the market has information not supplied here (injury to opponent, surface advantage, etc.), our conclusion could be missing that edge

Details

We base our assessment solely on the provided player profile for Daria Yesypchuk and the quoted market prices. Yesypchuk's career record in the provided data is 10 wins in 31 matches (≈32.3% win rate) with multiple recent losses noted, which implies a true win probability substantially below the market-implied probability for the 1.14 away price (≈87.7%). There is no performance or injury information provided for the home player (Sarafina Olivia Hansen), nor any head-to-head or clear surface-advantage detail that would justify the market making Yesypchuk such a heavy favorite. Using Yesypchuk's observable career winning percentage (0.323) as the best-supported estimate of her true probability to win this match leads to a required fair decimal price of ~3.096 for positive expected value on her; the current quoted 1.14 yields a strongly negative ROI. Given the lack of supporting data that would raise Yesypchuk's true probability near the market level and the absence of information that would justify a large edge for the home player, we cannot identify a value bet at the current prices and therefore recommend no wager.

Key factors

• • Yesypchuk career win-rate 10/31 ≈32.3% per provided profile
• • Multiple recent losses in the provided recent-match sequence indicate weak form
• • Market price (Away 1.14) implies ≈87.7% which is unsupported by the supplied performance data