Highlights

• • Market gives Ambrosio ~78% implied win chance despite similar records
• • Home at 3.40 offers ~53% expected return under our probability estimate

Pros

• + Significant positive EV at current odds if our parity assessment holds
• + No research evidence of a clear advantage for the listed favorite

Cons

• - Limited data depth in the provided research increases uncertainty around the true edge
• - Tennis outcomes are volatile; an underdog-backed strategy can see variance

Details

We see a large disconnect between the market price and what the public data suggest. The book price for Silvia Ambrosio (away) at 1.28 implies ~78% win probability while Sarah Iliev (home) at 3.40 implies ~29% — an extreme gap. The available profiles show nearly identical career records (both 10-21), similar surface experience (clay and hard), and no reported injuries or clear form edge in the provided research. With no H2H or venue/surface advantage evident in the research, we view the matchup as much closer than the market implies. We estimate Sarah Iliev's true chance at about 45%, which makes 3.40 a clear value price: EV = 0.45 * 3.40 - 1 = +0.53 (53% ROI per unit). Even allowing for uncertainty, the market's implied ~29% is overly pessimistic given the parity in the research data, so we recommend backing the home underdog at the quoted odds.

Key factors

• • Both players show nearly identical career records (10-21) and similar surface profiles
• • Market implies a heavy favorite (away 1.28) despite no clear advantage in the provided data
• • No injuries, H2H, or surface edge present in the research to justify the market skew