Sarah Rakotomanga vs Janice Tjen

Highlights

• • Market implies ~80.6% for Janice, which is not supported by her 10-21 career record
• • We estimate Janice closer to ~55% here, so the current price lacks value

Pros

• + Janice is the market favorite, so she may still be the stronger player on paper
• + If internal matchup factors (unknown from research) favor Janice, the market price could be justified

Cons

• - Research shows poor overall record and recent losing form for Janice
• - No information provided on Sarah makes it hard to justify the heavy market preference

Details

We compare the market-implied probability for the away favorite (Janice Tjen) to our assessment. The current away price 1.24 implies ~80.6% win probability, but the available research shows Janice with a 10-21 career record (≈32% win rate) across 31 matches and clearly poor recent form with multiple recent losses. There is no research provided on Sarah Rakotomanga to justify such a large market tilt toward Janice. Given Janice's documented record and recent results, we estimate her true probability materially below the market-implied 80.6%, so the offered 1.24 does not represent value. With the uncertainty around surface, head-to-head, and Sarah's level, we decline to recommend a side unless a price closer to or above ~1.82 on Janice is available.

Key factors

• • Janice Tjen career win-rate 10-21 (~32%), indicating limited historical win frequency
• • Recent form in the provided data shows multiple losses, signaling poor short-term form
• • Market-implied probability (1.24 → ~80.6%) is far higher than what available performance data supports