Sarah Rakotomanga vs Panna Udvardy
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We view the home underdog at 2.38 as a value play: Udvardy's documented poor form makes the market's favoritism questionable, and at a 50% estimated win probability the home line yields ~19% ROI.
Highlights
- • Away favorite's implied probability (~63%) conflicts with Udvardy's 10-21 record and recent losses
- • Home decimal 2.38 requires only ~42% true chance to be fair; we estimate ~50%
Pros
- + Clear numerical edge between our probability estimate and market-implied probability
- + Simple, conservative probability assumption (50%) still produces positive EV
Cons
- - Very limited direct information on Sarah Rakotomanga in the Research increases uncertainty
- - If surface/venue or unseen injuries favor the listed favorite, our estimate may be optimistic
Details
We compare the book's implied probabilities (Home 2.38 -> 42.0%, Away 1.58 -> 63.3%) to our estimate of true win likelihood. Panna Udvardy's provided profile shows a poor overall record (10-21, ~32% win rate) and recent losing form, which suggests the away price at ~63% is overstated. With no contradictory information on Sarah Rakotomanga in the Research, we take a conservative, value-focused stance: we estimate Sarah's true chance at 50%, which is materially higher than the market-implied 42% for the home line. At that probability, the home decimal 2.38 yields positive expected value (EV = 0.50 * 2.38 - 1 = +0.19). We therefore recommend the home side because the current price offers value versus our probability assessment, while acknowledging uncertainty from limited data on the home player.
Key factors
- • Panna Udvardy's poor overall record (10-21) and recent string of losses
- • Market implies 63% for Udvardy, which appears overstated relative to documented form
- • Home line 2.38 (42% implied) offers value if Sarah's chance ≥50%