Sarah Rokusek vs Monique Barry
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: The away price looks severely overvalued; we project Sarah Rokusek at ~35% win probability which makes the 3.8 home price +EV versus the market. This is a high-uncertainty value play rather than a certainty.
Highlights
- • Market-implied probabilities are extreme and likely incorrect given player parity
- • Home price 3.8 > fair threshold ~2.857, yielding significant theoretical ROI
Pros
- + Large margin between market implied chance and our estimated probability
- + Current odds (3.8) translate to strong theoretical expected value (≈33% ROI)
Cons
- - Very small sample and limited data on both players increases model uncertainty
- - No H2H, injury, or on-site conditions to further validate the edge; market may move
Details
We see a large market disconnect: the away price (1.23, implied ~81%) is heavily favored despite both players having nearly identical career records (Sarah Rokusek 10-22, Monique Barry 10-21) and comparable surface experience. There is no H2H or injury info provided to justify such a skew. Using a conservative head-to-head assessment (players of very similar level, slight variance from sample noise), we estimate Sarah's chance materially above the market-implied 26.3% for the home moneyline. At our estimated true probability of 35%, the minimum fair price would be ~2.857 decimal; the available 3.8 represents positive expected value. We therefore recommend the home moneyline because the current odds (3.8) provide a substantial edge versus our probability model. Key caveats: both players have limited and similar results and the dataset is small, so uncertainty is high.
Key factors
- • Market implies Monique ~81% which is inconsistent with near-identical career records
- • Both players have similar win-loss records and surface histories (no clear edge)
- • No injury/H2H data provided; valuation relies on relative parity and market skew