Sarah Boussaffir vs Lucie Nguyen Tan

Highlights

• • Market-implied probability underestimates Sarah relative to our model
• • Lucie's recent results and overall record justify downgrading her market price

Pros

• + Positive expected value at current price (EV ≈ 0.184)
• + Market appears to overrate Lucie based on the limited form data provided

Cons

• - No direct performance or injury data for Sarah in the provided research increases uncertainty
• - If Lucie has unreported improvements or favorable matchup traits, our estimate may be too generous

Details

We find value on the home player, Sarah Boussaffir, because the market heavily favors Lucie Nguyen Tan at 1.369 despite Lucie's weak documented form (10-21 career, recent losses). The raw implied probability from the current decimals (normalized) gives Sarah ≈32.7% and Lucie ≈67.3%. Based on Lucie's poor win-loss record and recent defeats in early September, we estimate Lucie's true probability is substantially lower than the market-implied ~67%, and correspondingly Sarah's true chance is higher than the market-implied ~33%. Using a conservative estimated true probability for Sarah of 42%, the bet at 2.82 yields positive expected value (EV = 0.42 * 2.82 - 1 ≈ 0.184). We acknowledge uncertainty because we have no direct data on Sarah in the provided research and surface/venue specifics are not available; we therefore use a conservative probability rather than an aggressive uplift.

Key factors

• • Lucie Nguyen Tan's documented season record is poor (10-21), indicating lower baseline win expectancy
• • Recent match-level form shows consecutive losses in early September
• • Market heavily favors Lucie (1.369), creating attractive odds on the home underdog at 2.82