Highlights

• • Market-implied probability for Rokusek: ~59.4% (1.685)
• • Our estimated true probability for Rokusek: 52% → fair odds ~1.923

Pros

• + Clear numeric comparison between implied and estimated probabilities shows negative EV
• + Research indicates no distinct performance advantage for either player, supporting caution

Cons

• - High uncertainty due to small sample sizes and limited differentiating data
• - If inside-market information (injury, recent practice, travel) exists but not in our sources, it could change the true probability

Details

We find no value backing either player at the posted prices. The research shows Sarah Rokusek and Belle Thompson with effectively identical career records (10-22) and recent results on hard courts, providing no clear performance edge. The market prices Sarah Rokusek as the favorite at 1.685 (implied ~59.4%), but given the matching profiles, limited sample size, and both players' recent poor form, we estimate Rokusek's true win probability at ~52%. At that probability the fair decimal price would be ~1.923, meaning the current favorite price of 1.685 is too short and offers negative expected value. Therefore we recommend no bet because required value is not present at available odds.

Key factors

• • Both players show identical career records and similar recent results on hard courts
• • Bookmaker implies a ~59% chance for the home favorite, which exceeds our estimated ~52% probability
• • Small sample sizes and recent poor form for both players increase uncertainty and downside risk