Highlights

• • Favorite priced at 1.04 implies ~96% chance despite a 10-21 record
• • Home at 11.5 requires only ~8.7% true chance to be profitable; we estimate 12%

Pros

• + Large margin between market price and our conservative probability estimate creates strong EV
• + Recent documented losses for the favorite support skepticism of the ultra-short market price

Cons

• - Very limited information on the home player increases model risk and uncertainty
• - Market may be reflecting non-public factors (injury, ranking gap, walkover risk) that would invalidate the value thesis

Details

We find clear value on the home underdog. The market prices Alicia Dudeney at 1.04 (implied ~96.2% win probability), which is sharply at odds with the available performance data: Dudeney's career record in the provided sample is 10-21 (~32% win rate) and her most recent listed matches are losses. Such a market probability requires near-certainty that is not supported by the documented form. We conservatively estimate Sasha Natalie Chimedza's true chance at 12% (0.12) given the conflicting information and lack of data on the home player; at that probability the fair decimal price is ~8.333, well shorter than the current 11.5 being offered. Using the current home price of 11.5 yields positive expected value (EV = 0.12 * 11.5 - 1 = 0.38), so a value play exists despite high variance and uncertainty. We note heightened model risk due to sparse information on the home player and the possibility that market odds reflect undisclosed factors (injury, withdrawal, ranking differential), so we treat our probability estimate as conservative.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probability for Dudeney (1.04) is ~96%, which is inconsistent with her documented 10-21 career record
• • Recent form shown in the research includes consecutive losses for Dudeney, reducing confidence in near-certain market pricing
• • Sparse/no public data on Sasha Natalie Chimedza increases uncertainty but also creates potential mispricing opportunity for a longshot