Savine Erler vs Leyna Bey
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: No value detected: market shortens the favourite below our conservative fair price (1.613), producing a small negative EV at the available 1.57 price.
Highlights
- • Market implies home 63.7%; our conservative estimate 62.0%
- • Current home odds (1.57) produce negative EV under our estimate
Pros
- + Clear market pricing to compare against a conservative probability
- + Conservative stance protects bankroll against unknowns (injury/form)
Cons
- - No external data available increases uncertainty in the estimate
- - Market overround (~7.6%) reduces bookmaker inefficiency to exploit
Details
We compare the market prices to a conservative estimate of true probability. Market decimal odds imply the home (Savine Erler) win probability at 1/1.57 = 63.7% (with a market overround ~7.6%). Given the absence of external form, surface, injury or H2H data, we apply a conservative assessment slightly below the market's implied probability and estimate Savine Erler's true win probability at 62.0%. That implies a fair price of 1.613. The current home price (1.57) is shorter than the minimum required decimal odds (1.613) for value, producing a negative EV (-0.027) if we backed the favourite. With limited information and no demonstrable edge at available prices, we decline to recommend a bet.
Key factors
- • Market-implied probability for home is ~63.7% (1.57 odds)
- • No external data (form, surface, injury, H2H) — we apply conservative assumptions
- • Required fair price (1.613) is longer than current market price, so no value