Sebastian Dominko vs Edward Winter

Highlights

• • Market-implied probability 69.1% vs our estimate 72.0%
• • Positive EV of ~0.043 units per 1-unit stake at current odds

Pros

• + Clearer experience and record advantage for Edward
• + Surface alignment favors Edward and reduces upset probability

Cons

• - Edge is modest — subject to challenger-level volatility
• - Limited direct head-to-head or deep recent-form detail on Dominko increases outcome variance

Details

We assess value on Edward Winter (away). The market price of 1.448 implies a win probability of ~69.1%. Comparing the two players from the provided data, Edward has a substantially larger match sample (55 matches vs 22), a stronger overall win record (32-22 vs 10-11), and documented experience on grass and hard courts. Sebastian Dominko shows limited activity, fewer matches, no recorded grass-specialization, and weaker recent form. Given the surface is grass and Edward's demonstrated comfort on faster surfaces, we estimate Edward's true win probability at 72.0%, which exceeds the market-implied 69.1% and produces a small positive expected value at the quoted price. Our calculation: EV = 0.72 * 1.448 - 1 = +0.0426 (4.26% ROI). We therefore recommend backing Edward at current widely-available prices, recognizing this is a modest edge with typical challenger-level variance.

Key factors

• • Edward has a larger sample size and better win-loss record (32-22 vs 10-11)
• • Match surface is grass — Edward has recorded grass/hard play while Dominko lacks grass experience
• • Dominko's limited form and fewer matches increase uncertainty and reduce his upset likelihood