Sebastian Sorger vs Jerome Kym

Highlights

• • Jerome Kym favored strongly on grass with relevant higher-level match experience
• • Current odds for Kym (1.116) imply a probability slightly above our estimate, producing a small negative EV

Pros

• + Market accurately reflects Kym's surface suitability and recent level—reduces mispricing risk
• + If you had longer odds on Sorger (>>6.54) there could be speculative value given variance in ATP Challenger matches

Cons

• - No positive EV on the clear favorite at available prices
• - Sorger's profile and form do not justify a much higher upset probability on grass

Details

We compare the quoted market price (Jerome Kym 1.116 decimal, implied ~89.6%) to our assessed win probability. Kym has multi-surface experience including grass and recent results at a higher level (US Open qualifying), while Sebastian Sorger's profile shows primarily clay play and weaker recent results. On grass we assess Kym as a clear favorite, but the market price already prices him extremely heavily. Our estimated true win probability for Kym is 88.0% (0.880). At the current decimal odds of 1.116 the expected return would be negative (EV = 0.880 * 1.116 - 1 = -0.019), so there is no positive value to back Kym at available prices. Sorger at 6.54 (implied ~15.3%) could be interesting only if we believed his true chance was >15.3%, but surface and form data do not support upgrading his probability to that level. Therefore we recommend no bet—the market is too efficient on the favorite at this price.

Key factors

• • Surface: grass favors Kym (Sorger's profile shows mostly clay)
• • Recent form and level: Kym has recent higher-level qualifying matches (US Open Q); Sorger's recent results are weaker
• • Market price is very short for Kym (implied ~89.6%), leaving no value at our estimated probability