Highlights

• • Away implied market price (1.746) is shorter than our min fair price (1.852)
• • Negative EV at available prices: approximately -0.057 per unit on the favoured side

Pros

• + We avoid taking value-free stakes given limited information
• + Conservative probability estimates reduce risk of overbetting on flimsy assumptions

Cons

• - If our true-probability estimate underestimates the away player, there could be missed value
• - Lack of match-specific data increases uncertainty in the projection

Details

We have no external match-specific data (form, H2H, surface history, injuries), so we use conservative assumptions. The market prices are Home 2.00 (implied 50.0%) and Away 1.746 (implied 57.3%). After accounting for bookmaker margin and tournament-final parity, we estimate Laetitia Sarrazin (away) at 54.0% to win and Seda Baslilar (home) at 46.0%. At our estimated 54.0% true probability the away side requires minimum fair odds of ~1.852 to offer positive value; the available price of 1.746 is shorter than that, producing a negative expected value (EV = 0.54 * 1.746 - 1 = -0.057). The home price (2.00) is also longer than our 46.0% estimate requires (min fair odds 2.174), but our assessment does not support a >50% win chance for the home player, so backing the home side would be laying implied probability we do not believe in. Given the lack of verifiable inputs and the small negative EV at the available prices, we recommend taking no side.

Key factors

• • No match-specific external data available (form, injuries, H2H)
• • We applied a conservative adjustment for bookmaker margin and ITF final parity
• • Current market price for the away favorite (1.746) is shorter than our fair threshold (~1.852)