Highlights

• • Implied market probability ~92% vs our estimate ~70%
• • Minimum fair odds for value: ~1.429 (current 1.086 well below)

Pros

• + Klintcharov has recent hard-court activity and ITF experience
• + Market clearly views him as heavy favorite, suggesting match should be straightforward

Cons

• - Career record and recent mixed results do not support a >90% win probability
• - No information provided on the opponent (Sehaj Singh Pawar) or potential injuries, increasing uncertainty

Details

We see a very short price on Alexander Klintcharov (1.086 decimal → implied ~92.2%). His career record (24-26 across 50 matches) and mixed recent results do not justify a ~92% win probability against an opponent with no provided profile. We estimate Klintcharov's true win probability around 70% for this ITF R1 matchup on hard courts based on experience and recent activity, which requires a minimum fair price of ~1.429. At the available 1.086 the bet has a negative expected value, so we recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probability (~92%) is far higher than our estimated win probability (~70%)
• • Klintcharov's career record is near .500 (24-26) with mixed recent results — not dominant
• • Surface (hard) matches his recent play, but opponent profile/fitness is unknown, introducing uncertainty