Highlights

• • Market-implied/home normalized probability ~30% vs our 36% estimate
• • Current price 3.17 > required break-even odds (2.778) for our estimate

Pros

• + Price offers cushion vs our conservative probability estimate
• + Both competitors have similar profiles—less hidden advantage for the favorite

Cons

• - Limited sample size and recent form shows both players losing matches, increasing variance
• - No head-to-head or additional matchup detail in the provided research to refine the estimate

Details

We estimate value on Selena Janicijevic (home). The market moneyline (3.17) implies a raw probability of ~31.6% (and ~30.0% after normalizing for the book's overround), while our read—based on near-identical career records (both ~10-21/22), both players competing on familiar surfaces (hard), and no clear form gap in the provided recent-match data—places Janicijevic's true win probability higher at 36%. That gap (36% true vs ~30% market-adjusted) produces positive expected value at the listed 3.17 price. We use the current quoted price (3.17) for the EV calculation and find an attractive ROI assuming our probability estimate is accurate. Uncertainty remains due to limited data, no H2H, and both players' recent poor run, so we size confidence conservatively.

Key factors

• • Both players have nearly identical season records (10-22 vs 10-21), suggesting parity
• • Both have recent matches on hard courts—surface familiarity reduces matchup uncertainty
• • Market-implied probability (after removing vig) underprices the home player compared with our model