Semen Pankin vs Ognjen Milic
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find small but positive value on Ognjen Milic at 1.52 given his stronger clay form at this venue; expected ROI ≈ 6.4% based on our 70% win estimate.
Highlights
- • Market implied: Milic ~65.8%, Pankin ~41.7%
- • Our estimated true probability for Milic: 70% → small positive edge
Pros
- + Milic has better clay performance and recent wins at this event
- + Current price (1.52) offers a slim but positive expected return per our model
Cons
- - Edge is modest — variance in a best-of-three match can erase the advantage
- - Limited dataset and no clear H2H in the provided research increases uncertainty
Details
We prefer Ognjen Milic (away). The market prices Milic at 1.52 (implied ~65.8%); Semen Pankin is 2.40 (implied ~41.7%). From the provided profiles Milic has a stronger overall record on clay (25-10 vs Pankin's 27-19 but with worse recent results) and explicit recent wins at the same M15 Kursumlijska Banja event while Pankin shows recent losses there. Taking surface, recent form at this venue, and overall win rates into account, we estimate Milic's true win probability at 70.0%. At the quoted 1.52 this implies EV = 0.70 * 1.52 - 1 = +0.064 (6.4% ROI on a 1-unit stake). The edge is modest but positive versus the market-implied probability (65.8%), so we recommend taking Milic at current widely-available prices.
Key factors
- • Milic stronger recent form at the Kursumlijska Banja event (recent wins)
- • Milic superior win-loss ratio on clay in provided data
- • Pankin shows recent losses at the same event and less convincing recent form