Semen Pankin vs Simeon Stankovic
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find a small value on Semen Pankin at 1.862 based on superior career win-rate and market-implied probability below our estimate; edge is modest.
Highlights
- • Pankin win-rate 58.7% vs Stankovic 51.7%
- • Current home odds 1.862 imply 53.7% — we estimate 56.0%
Pros
- + Clearer historical winning percentage advantage for Pankin
- + Odds provide a measurable positive expected value (≈4.3% ROI)
Cons
- - Margin of value is small — sensitive to small estimation errors
- - Recent form for both players appears mixed; no clear form edge
Details
We estimate Semen Pankin is the value pick. His career win-rate (27/46 = 58.7%) is noticeably higher than Simeon Stankovic's (15/29 = 51.7%), and both players have predominantly clay experience, so surface advantage is neutralized but overall match experience favors Pankin. The market prices him at 1.862 (implied 53.7%); our assessed true probability (56.0%) exceeds that, producing a small positive edge. Recent form shows mixed results for both, so we conservatively discount raw career win-rates but still find value versus the market-implied probability. Given the modest edge, this is a value-but-low-margin play only if the 1.862 price is available.
Key factors
- • Pankin higher overall career win-rate (27-19 ≈ 58.7%)
- • Both players are clay specialists, reducing surface-driven adjustments
- • Market-implied probability for Pankin (1/1.862 ≈ 53.7%) is below our estimated 56%