Senshi vs ZennIT
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: No bet — market price on ZennIT looks too short versus our conservative 62% estimate, while the slight edge on Senshi (~3% ROI at 2.71) is insufficiently reliable given lack of information.
Highlights
- • Market-implied away win probability: ~73.6% (odds 1.358).
- • Our conservative estimates: ZennIT 62%, Senshi 38% — small home edge but low confidence.
Pros
- + Conservative estimate avoids overtrading on sparse information.
- + We identify the only potential value (Senshi) and quantify the edge (~3%).
Cons
- - Lack of concrete data (injuries, recent form, roster changes) reduces confidence.
- - Home edge is marginal and could easily evaporate with any additional information.
Details
We have no external match data, so we apply conservative assumptions. The market currently prices ZennIT (away) at 1.358 (implied ~73.6%) and Senshi (home) at 2.71 (implied ~36.9%). Given the lack of form, injury, or H2H information, we conservatively estimate ZennIT's true win probability at 62% (0.62) and Senshi at 38% (0.38). Under those estimates ZennIT is over-priced by the market (1/1.358 = 0.736 implied > our 0.62 true → negative edge), while Senshi shows a very small positive edge versus the market (0.38 * 2.71 - 1 ≈ 0.03 ROI). However, that home edge is marginal and arises purely from an assumed distribution in the absence of information; we lack sufficient confidence to act on a ~3% edge. Therefore we recommend no bet.
Key factors
- • No external data on form, roster, or H2H — conservative assumptions only
- • Market strongly favors away (implied ~73.6%) which exceeds our conservative true estimate (62%)
- • Small theoretical edge on home at current price, but edge is marginal and low-confidence