Highlights

• • Home player has direct recent experience at this venue and surface
• • Current market prices the away team as a clear favorite, creating a potential inefficiency

Pros

• + Venue/surface familiarity for Dong Ju Kim could confer a practical advantage
• + Decimal 2.48 exceeds our break-even threshold (2.381) for the estimated probability

Cons

• - Very limited publicly available data on partners and opponents in the research
• - Estimated edge is small and sensitive to probability assumptions

Details

We view the home pairing (Seokhyeon Chu/Dong Ju Kim) as a value candidate versus market odds. The market prices the away team at 1.49 (implied ~67% chance) while the home duo is 2.48. Our model incorporates the only concrete data available: Dong Ju Kim has recent match experience at the same Nakhon Pathom hard-court event, which provides venue and surface familiarity that is under-reflected by the market. Given Kim's participation at this site and uncertain composition/chemistry of the opposing team in the provided research, we estimate the home pair's win probability higher than the market-implied 40.3% (from 2.48). Using an estimated true probability of 42%, the 2.48 price produces a small but positive edge (EV = 0.042 per unit). We acknowledge limited sample size and missing data on partners and opponents, so the edge is modest and comes with elevated uncertainty.

Key factors

• • Dong Ju Kim has recent match experience at Nakhon Pathom on hard courts
• • Market heavily favors the away side (1.49) — potential overpricing against a locally-tested opponent
• • Data set is limited (small sample, missing partner/opponent form) increasing uncertainty