Highlights

• • Book implied 74% vs our 80% estimate — small but meaningful edge
• • Van Herzeele's recent losses occurred on the same surface and event location

Pros

• + Clear, recent negative form signals for the opponent on the same surface/venue
• + Current market price (1.35) is above our fair value (1.25) producing positive EV

Cons

• - Very limited available data on both players overall; projection uncertainty is elevated
• - No injury/lineup confirmation for Chu available in the research — hidden risk

Details

We estimate Seokhyeon Chu is undervalued at the current market price. The bookimaker-implied probability for the home line (1.35) is ~74.1%, while our assessment — based on James Van Herzeele's limited form and poor recent results on hard courts at the same venue (1–3 recent record with losses in Nakhon Pathom) — gives Chu a higher true win probability of 80.0%. Using that probability, the fair decimal price is 1.25; the offered 1.35 represents positive expected value. We account for the small sample size and lack of contrary data on Chu, but Van Herzeele's specific negative indicators on this surface/venue justify elevating the home-win probability above the market-implied level.

Key factors

• • Van Herzeele recent form: 1–3 with recent losses at Nakhon Pathom on hard
• • Surface/venue alignment: recent defeats occurred on same hard surface and event location
• • Market price contains margin; offered 1.35 vs our fair price 1.25 yields value