Highlights

• • Away price 1.83 implies ~54.6%; we estimate 55% true win probability
• • Estimated EV is positive but very small (≈0.65% of stake)

Pros

• + Current price slightly underestimates away probability relative to our conservative model
• + One home partner (Yang) shows clear form concerns, tilting the matchup

Cons

• - Very limited data (only one player profile available) increases model uncertainty
• - Edge is tiny—small pricing or information shifts will remove value

Details

We have limited data but the available profile for Zijiang Yang shows very poor recent results (0-3) and limited match play in 2025, which weakens the home pairing's implied strength. The market prices both sides nearly evenly (Home 1.89, Away 1.83). The away price of 1.83 implies ~54.6% market probability; we conservatively estimate the away pair's true win probability at 55% given the demonstrated vulnerability of one home partner and the lack of positive form data for Yang. At p=0.55 the expected value on the away side at the current decimal of 1.83 is small but positive (EV = 0.55*1.83 - 1 = 0.0065), so the away side constitutes a marginal value bet at available prices.

Key factors

• • Zijiang Yang recent form: 0-3 in 2025 with limited match wins
• • Market is nearly even but away is slightly shorter (1.83) while home includes a clearly out-of-form player
• • Limited data increases uncertainty; we apply a conservative probability estimate (55%)