Highlights

• • Home implied probability (60.6%) > our estimate (55%) — no value
• • Away would need >= 2.222 to be +EV; current 2.14 is insufficient

Pros

• + We used conservative estimates reflecting poor recorded form for Yang
• + We require higher odds thresholds before recommending a bet, preserving long-term value discipline

Cons

• - Very limited and incomplete player data (partners' form unknown) lowers confidence
• - Small sample sizes for the players make probability estimates noisy

Details

We compared the market prices (Home 1.65 => implied 60.6%, Away 2.14 => implied 46.7%) to our estimated win chances based on the limited player data provided. Zijiang Yang has a very poor recorded start (0-3) and recent losses on both hard and clay; Zhenxiong Dong has a larger sample (18 matches) with a 4-14 record but is marginally better than Yang on hard courts. We lack any data for Seongwoo Cho and Changli Zhang, which increases uncertainty about the doubles pairing strengths. Given that uncertainty and the individual form we see, we estimate the home pairing's true win probability at ~55% and the away pairing at ~45% (summing to 100% for a two-way line). At those estimates the home side requires decimal odds >= 1.818 to be +EV, but the market offers 1.65; the away side requires >= 2.222 but the market offers 2.14. Both sides are priced below our minimum required odds, so neither offers positive expected value at current prices.

Key factors

• • Zijiang Yang 0-3 career record and recent losses (poor recent form)
• • Zhenxiong Dong slightly stronger sample (4-14) and some recent hard-court matches
• • No available data for partners Seongwoo Cho and Changli Zhang increases uncertainty
• • Market-implied probabilities: Home ~60.6%, Away ~46.7% (current odds)
• • Our estimated true probabilities (Home 55% / Away 45%) do not justify either market price