Seongwoo Cho/Dukchee Lee vs A. Santillan/Yukun Wang

Highlights

• • Home implied probability 76.9% vs our estimate 70% -> negative EV
• • Minimum fair odds for value on home are ~1.429; current 1.30 is too short

Pros

• + Clear favorite indicated by market, likely stronger team
• + Low uncertainty about a strong favorite in many matchups

Cons

• - Market price compresses value; current odds are shorter than our fair estimate
• - Lack of surface/form/injury data increases uncertainty and variance in doubles

Details

We estimate the home pair Seongwoo Cho/Dukchee Lee has a true win probability of about 70% in this matchup based on their favorite status and the assumption of a moderate quality gap in a challenger-level match. The market price of 1.30 implies ~76.9% probability, which is higher than our estimated 70%, so the home side is overpriced relative to our model. At our estimate the fair decimal odds would be ~1.429, meaning the current 1.30 offers negative expected value (EV = 0.70*1.30 - 1 = -0.09). The away price of 3.25 (implied ~30.8%) is also slightly shorter than the inverse of our away probability (we estimate ~30%), so it likewise lacks value. Given the absence of external information on surface, recent form, injuries, or H2H and using conservative assumptions about doubles variance, we decline to recommend a side at these prices.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probability (1.30 -> ~76.9%) exceeds our conservative true estimate (70%)
• • No external info on surface, form, injuries, or H2H; we apply conservative uncertainty
• • Doubles matches have higher variance; favorites need larger edges to offer value